Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
